Vaksinasi COVID-19 Lambat, RI Dibayangi Depresi Ekonomi di 2021



 Indonesia sudah kehadiran 1,2 juta jumlah vaksin Sinovac. Sekarang ini, Tubuh Pengawas Obat dan Makanan (BPOM) melakukan pengetesan pengecekan dan proses untuk beberapa calon vaksin. Jika sudah usai, karena itu penerapan vaksinasi dapat diawali.


Akan tetapi, program vaksinasi COVID-19 dipercaya tidak berjalan cepat. Apa lagi, penerapan vaksinasi tidak dikerjakan secara bertepatan. Perbaikan perekonomian juga disebutkan akan terimbas.


"Semakin lebih lamban (pemulihan ekonominya). Menurut saya kan proses ada yang bayar ada yang membeli, tidak seluruhnya punyai daya membeli. Orang miskin tidak jamin mendapatkan (vaksin) gratis," kata Direktur Eksekutif Institute for Development Economics and Finance (INDEF), Tauhid Ahmad ke IDN Times, Senin (14/12/2020).


Lambannya program vaksinasi akan membuat proses pemulihan perekonomian Indonesia akan berjalan lamban. Tauhid memproyeksikan jika perkembangan perekonomian Indonesia di kuartal I 2021 akan alami pembaruan dibandingkan kuartal IV 2020. Tetapi, angkanya masih minus.


glikosuria lebih banyak dialami dengan pasien diabetes Jika berlangsung, karena itu Indonesia akan alami stres ekonomi. Walau demikian, depresinya tidak begitu dalam.


"Bisa saja kesempatan (stres ekonomi). Secara harfiah ya dapat stres. tapo prosesnya lebih baik. jadi masihlah ada kesempatan. tapi jika kuartal I negatif masuk daerah stres tetapi tidak terlalu dalam sebab prosesnya lebih baik," terang Tauhid.


Stres ekonomi adalah keadaan yang lebih kronis dibandingkan krisis. Karena, berlangsung pengurangan rutinitas ekonomi yang berkelanjutan. Dapat disebut, bila krisis berlangsung dalam waktu yang panjang, terjadi stres.


Menurut Ekonom INDEF Bhima Yudhistira, stres ekonomi dapat berlangsung jika ekonomi dalam negeri alami kontraksi atau minus lebih dari empat kuartal atau 12 bulan. Stres ekonomi berlangsung condong dibarengi dengan pengangguran yang masif dan inflasi yang rendah.


Indonesia, kata Bhima, mempunyai potensi alami stres ekonomi di 2021. Hal tersebut dapat berlangsung jika beberapa indikator ekonominya alami kontraksi yang jelek dan berkelanjutan.


"Kondisinya (perekonomian Indonesia) ke arah pada stres. Krisis tahun 2008 masih mencatat inflasi 11 %. Sesaat tahun 2020 ada kecendurungan inflasi rendah bahkan juga deflasi sepanjang beberapa waktu beruntun," sebut ia.


Indonesia sudah alami krisis ekonomi. Karena, pada kuartal II 2020 perkembangan ekonominya minus 5,32 % dan pada kuartal III minus 3,49 %.


Saat itu pada kuartal IV 2020, perkembangan perekonomian Indonesia diprediksi minus 2 % sampai positif 0,6 %.

Lokasyon: Indonesia

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